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Observed (1851 to 2011) and projected (2011 to 2061) annual average growth rate, natural increase and migratory increase in Canada per intercensal period
Figure 1 shows the observed share of natural increase and migratory increase in the total Canadian population growth for intercensal periods from 1851-1861 to 2001-2011 and the projected share for intercensal periods from 2011-2021 to 2051-2061. Natural increase went down from 2.4% in 1851-1861 to 1.4% in 1891-1901. It then rose to 1.8% in 1901-1911 and 1.9% in 1911-1921, before decreasing to 1.1% in 1931-1941. It rose again to 2.7%, in 1951-1961 and fell again, to 0.4%, by the end of the reference period, in 2001-2011. Natural increase is expected to decrease over the whole projection period, reaching 0.1% in 2051-2061. Migratory increase was positive in 1851-1861 and negative from 1861-1871 to 1891-1901. It jumped to 1.1% in 1901-1911, but hovered around zero from 1911-1921 to 1931-1941. It peaked at 0.8% in 1951-1961, hovered around 0.4% from 1961-1971 to 1991-2001, and then went up again, finishing at 0.7% at the end of the reference period, in 2001-2011. Migratory increase is expected to hover around 0.6% over the whole projection period, except at the end of the period, when it would go up to 0.7% in 2051-2061. The sum of natural increase and migratory increase equals the rate of population growth, which is represented by a curve. The rate of population growth went down from 2.9% in 1851-1861 to a low of 1.1% in 1891-1901. It went up to 3.0% in 1901-1911 and then down to 1.0% in 1931-1941. It went up to reach a peak of 2.7% in 1951-1961 and then went down to 1.0% in 1991-2001. It finished at 1.1% at the end of the reference period, in 2001-2011. The rate of population growth is expected to decrease over the whole projection period, from 1.1% in 2011-2021 to 0.7% in 2051-2061. Between 1941 and 1951, the addition of Newfoundland and Labrador added to the Canadian population growth, corresponding to an increase of 0.3%.
Period 1851 to 1861: Keyfitz, Nathan. 1950. 'The growth of the Canadian population,' in Population Studies, volume IV, pp. 47 to 63.
Period 1861 to 1931: McInnis, Marvin. 2000. 'The Population of Canada in the Nineteenth Century,' in A Population History of North America, edited by Michael R. Haines and Richard H. Steckel, Cambridge University Press, pp. 371 to 432; McInnis, Marvin. 2000. 'Canada's Population in the Twentieth Century,' in A Population History of North America, edited by Michael R. Haines and Richard H. Steckel, Cambridge University Press, pp. 529 to 599; and Institut de la statistique du Québec.
Period 1931 to 2011: Demography Division, Statistics Canada.
Period 2011 to 2061: Statistics Canada. 2010. Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2009 to 2036, Catalogue no. 91-520 (medium growth scenario).